Tahrir tartan

About the Tahrir tartan

The Tahrir Tartan charts the journey from dictatorship to democracy in the Middle East—Tahrir, derived from Arabic, meaning liberation. The single black line signifies the martyrdom of 26-year-old Mohamed Bouazizi, the oppressed street trader whose desperate act of self-immolation ignited the revolution—represented by the red stripe—that swept the region. The green square symbolizes the crucial decadal state-building period, during which new institutions must be established to guarantee basic rights and freedoms. The double black lines represent statutory opposition, the cornerstone of any enduring democracy. This tartan honours the Arab youth who risked everything to free themselves from the grip of authoritarian regimes, reclaim their dignity, and shape their own destiny. Despite their efforts, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains the most autocratic in the world, with 98% of its population still living under authoritarian rule. But the struggle is far from over.

Every year the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute publishes its report on the state of global governance. The 2024 report reveals a continuing global trend of autocratization. It assesses various democratic components, finding freedom of expression and election quality particularly deteriorated. The report also explores the implications of the expanding BRICS group of autocracies and highlights specific countries experiencing democratic gains or losses. Although the world is almost evenly divided between 91 democracies and 88 autocracies, 71% of the world’s population – 5.7 billion people – live in autocracies – an increase from 48% ten years ago.

Here's the breakdown:

Closed autocracies: 27% of the world’s population. Countries include China, Iran, Myanmar, and Vietnam.
Electoral autocracies: 44% of the world’s population. Countries include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, The Philippines, and Türkiye.
Electoral democracies: 16% of the world’s population. 59 countries including Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa.
Liberal democracies: 13% of the world’s population, scattered across 32 nations.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains the most autocratic region in the world, with 98% of its population residing in autocracies. A large share (45%) lives in closed autocracies such as Iran, Libya, and Saudi Arabia, but 53% live in electoral autocracies, such as Türkiye and Iraq. There is only one democratizer (Tunisia), whose fate is by no means certain. The Arab Spring, while initially promising, has so far failed to achieve its democratic goals and highlights the complex realities of democratization in the face of entrenched power. However, 15 years is but a blink of an eye in the grand scheme of things. François Burgat argues that it's unrealistic to expect a swift transition from authoritarianism: "It is, therefore, in many respects illusory to imagine that an authoritarian system that for 40 years had dug roots in the depths of society and the regional environment could be changed in a mere decade."

Anne & Ian's Deep Dive into the March of Autocracy

FAQ - Global Trends

What is the current global trend regarding democracy?

While the world has experienced a wave of democratization in recent decades, a worrying trend of autocratization is emerging, according to V-Dem Institute Research. Various indices show a decline in democratic values and an increase in the number of countries experiencing significant democratic backsliding.

Which regions are most affected by autocratization?

Autocratization is a global phenomenon, with countries across all regions experiencing declines in democratic freedoms. However, some areas, like East Asia and the Pacific, have seen more pronounced shifts towards authoritarianism.

What are the main characteristics of autocratizing countries?

Autocratizing countries often exhibit a weakening of checks and balances, limitations on freedom of expression and the media, and a decrease in electoral integrity. They might also show a rise in political polarization and a decline in civil society participation.

Are there any notable examples of "stand-alone" autocratizers?

Yes, countries like Hungary and Poland are considered "stand-alone" autocratizers, meaning their democratic decline happened independently, without being directly influenced by a preceding period of autocratization.

Are there any countries reversing their autocratic trends?

Yes, there are a few instances of countries experiencing "U-turn" democratization, where a period of democratic improvement follows a period of autocratization. Countries like The Gambia, Timor-Leste, and several others are currently undergoing such transitions.

What factors contribute to the success of democratization?

Successful democratization often involves strengthening civil society, promoting freedom of expression and the media, ensuring free and fair elections, and establishing robust institutions that uphold the rule of law.

Are there any regions where democratization is more prevalent?

While democratization is less prevalent than autocratization globally, some regions, like certain island nations and parts of Latin America, show more promising signs of democratic progress.

What are "near misses" in the context of democratization and autocratization?

"Near misses" refer to countries that come close to meeting the criteria for being categorized as autocratizing or democratizing, often exhibiting significant changes in democratic indicators without fully crossing the threshold. These countries warrant close observation as they can potentially shift in either direction.

FAQ - Arab World

Source: The Arab Spring: Past, Present, and Future, edited by Şener Aktürk and Tarek Cherkaoui. The book provides a comprehensive analysis of the Arab Spring, ten years after its onset, examining its causes, consequences, and future prospects.

Main Themes:

The Unfinished Revolution: The Arab Spring, despite its initial promise, has largely failed to achieve its goals of democratization and social justice. Counter-revolutionary forces, both domestic and foreign, have successfully rolled back many of the gains made during the uprisings.

François Burgat argues that it's unrealistic to expect a swift transition from authoritarianism: "It is, therefore, in many respects illusory to imagine that an authoritarian system that for 40 years had dug roots in the depths of society and the regional environment could be changed in a mere decade."
Ziad Majed highlights the ongoing repression in Egypt: "Imprisoning the first democratically elected president, Mohammad Morsi, for six years and ultimately causing his death was not enough for the military junta to cease its crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood."

The Weaponization of Sectarianism: Authoritarian regimes have strategically exploited ethnic and religious divisions to divide their opponents and maintain their grip on power. This has resulted in protracted conflicts and the displacement of millions.

François Burgat observes: "Internally, they [sub-national identities] most often emerged as tools in the hands of the authoritarian power, serving its classic end of dividing its opponents."
Ziad Majed points to the Syrian regime's manipulation of sectarian tensions: "From the first hours of a popular uprising that extended far beyond the borders of the Sunni community, he [Bashar Al-Assad] sought to make the uprising appear limited to that community alone."

The Role of External Actors: Foreign powers, driven by their own geopolitical interests, have intervened in the region, often exacerbating existing conflicts and hindering the prospects for peaceful transitions.

Mujeeb R. Khan argues: "The most decisive variable in explaining the democracy and developmental deficit in Muslim countries is directly tied to massive Western and Russian military invasions and occupations, which continue in one form or another until today."
Ferhat Polat points to the Libyan conflict as an example of foreign intervention: "Some countries filled the vacuum, with an eye on Libya’s wealth. Egypt, Russia, and the UAE bet on Haftar, supplying him with sophisticated weapons systems and the mercenaries to operate them."

The Persistence of Authoritarianism: Despite the initial wave of protests, authoritarian regimes have proven resilient, adapting their tactics to suppress dissent and maintain control. They have used a combination of coercion, propaganda, and economic incentives to co-opt or eliminate their opponents.

Ayşe Tekdal Koç describes the Algerian regime's resilience: "The Algerian experience is a good example of the use of a variety of tools to remain in power. Thanks to the reconfiguration that took place during the 1990s, the regime has a wide variety of tools in its inventory."

The Rise of Political Islam: Islamist movements have played a complex and multifaceted role in the Arab Spring. While some have embraced democratic principles, others have resorted to violence or have been co-opted by authoritarian regimes.

François Burgat argues: "From a broader perspective, the “omnipresent diversity” of Islamists confirms the hypothesis that the phenomenon of so-called political Islam cannot be reduced to the emergence of a single, unique and particular political ideology."
Ali Bakir highlights the Saudi-Emirati opposition to political Islam: "Saudi Arabia and the UAE aim to restore this government. Logically, they should be allied with Al-Islah. Instead, their obsessive enmity for the Muslim Brotherhood means they do everything in their power to weaken it."

Conclusion:

The Arab Spring has been a transformative event in the history of the Middle East. While it has failed to achieve its initial goals of democratization and social justice, it has exposed the deep-seated problems of authoritarianism, inequality, and foreign intervention that continue to plague the region. The future of the Arab world remains uncertain, but the legacy of the Arab Spring will continue to shape the region for years to come.

The Tahrir tartan symbolizes this enduring legacy—a fabric woven with the colors of resilience, hope, and the shared struggle for freedom. Like the protests that once filled Tahrir Square, the tartan’s intersecting threads remind us that democratization is not a single moment but an ongoing journey, built on the connections between individuals and movements across generations. It is both a commemoration of past struggles and a call to persevere, to envision a future where justice and equality are not just aspirations, but realities.